Thanks for your top-class analysis Rachel, super-impressed! I was talking just this weekend to a money pundit at the XR rally in Windsor who told me that the BRICS nations are going to decouple from the dollar and what that might mean for the USA particularly as their national debt is some 34 trillion dollars! No way to pay that off if the world stops trading in dollars. If Kamala Harris gets in she will have to do some major heavy lifting to stop the US economy collapsing into its own footprint. If Trump gets in it will mean a stampede away from the dollar. Either way we are looking at a seismic shift in the balance of geopolitical power. Hang on to your seats everyone and make sure your community can feed itself. Safety in a resource crisis consists of well-fed neighbours.
The chickens are finally coming home to roost. The more I learn about the abuse of power of the west headed first by Britain and enthusiastically taken up by the USA becoming the senior parter after WW2 the more I can sympathise with rest of world. It does not bode well for the West or for the world in general. We have provided ample ammunition for authoritarian leaders to gather a following to polish their credentials for a fight back that distracts nicely from the personal gains they will make. We may yet be looking to China to be the voice of reason in the BRICS grouping. They have some investment in the carbon reduction game and also may see some benefit in retaining trade with non-BRICS countries which would entail not crippling their economies. Perhaps I am grasping at straws.
As a Brazilian I really enjoy the recent BRICS rise in relevance worldwide. However, as someone who works and is concerned with environment, I share all your concerns regarding the lack of changes in the economic model and the craziness for continuous grow. “A esperança é um urubu pintado de verde”.
Rachel, your work is critical. Thank you for this expert research, intelligence and opinion. It is rare and you are even rarer. Thank you! Please keep up the work. Thank you again!
You can be sure that the US won't cede power quietly.
Reminds me of the Schmachtenberger analysis of the main possible outcomes of the meta-crisis.
Collapse - Continuation of the current US dominated world order until biophysical/financial limits cause an inevitable crash.
Dystopia - The rise of authoritarian and autocratic governments, citizen monitoring and lack of personal freedoms. Probably still hitting the planets limits.
The need for a third attractor to steer away from these two outcomes. What is it though?
The end of the unipolar moment and the rise of mulitipolarity is not a dystopia of 'autocratic' governments - Russo and Sinophobia is event in the Western media but many BRICS countries are doing better at substantive democracies than the UK and US are.
China is leading on green development and in lifting millions out of poverty but what's really needed is a multi-lateral degrowth economic model.
I hope you're right, but I'm not so optimistic about China's green development (Uighur slavery) or human rights intentions of lifting people out of poverty. As Rachel rightly points out, if the multipolar world continues with the zero-sum dynamic of the unipolar one, we'll be stuck with the same cycle of resource wars and environmental destruction.
I don't think multipolarity will lead to resource wars which have almost exclusively involved the US illegally invading and stealing oil or punitively sanctioning in order to dominate and control the energy market. I think BRICS will reconfigure a UN type organisation (without the US right to veto) and will protect national sovereignty. They will peacefully trade (they do not want economy destroying war) in resources and energy share from their grids for mutual benefit. The personal relationship between Xi and Putin gives me hope that they can do this.
However, they will inherit the climate crisis that the West has mostly caused. It's going to be tough, but we're getting multipolarity whether we like it or not, so good luck to BRICS I say.
Ok just read my article then! There is only one source for the allegations of genocide of Uighurs- a right wing idealogue called Adrian Zenz. There is no evidence of slavery or forced sterilisation (apart from lines of 70 year olds queuing up for health checks!) and the Uyghur population growth in Xinjiang was 2.6 times higher than that of Han Chinese in the Xinjiang region.’
I'm sad to see this title terminology seemingly indicating something new. That said, I believe we may find that this rapist brings change not being contemplated by many, especially those watching commercial media. I've head Joel Salatin is considered for USDA and if that wouldn't kick capitalism in the ass a bit, I'm thinking another one that will would be RFK Jr running HHS. I see a potential for holding some corporate polluters accountable and perhaps a pull-back from some of the techno-fantasy and corporate controls that have largely bankrolled the status quo, while transferring funds from the working class to the privileged class and stymying real change to more sustainable practices for all.
I'm as surprised as anyone that I am feeling this way... may this be a reversion from when Reagan removed the solar panels from the White House back in the day?
I'm holding hope for some people (not profit) focused activity and potentially some end to the white-centric, GDP-focused, privileged class (and irrational really) narrative in the daily programming. I know it seems hard to believe but I do think 47 at least hears the people (upon whom he's counting for his self-affirmation?) and will tell the quiet truths out loud... at least once in a while. ;-)
Also, with BRICS, I'm a little bit wondering if Kamala was throwing the election... I mean, who wants to be in charge when the bottom falls out of the economy nationally? Why not put that loss on the epitome of corporate corruption? He's already taken accountability for blowing up Nordstream, so what's a little US Empire collapse on top of that?
The BRICKS countries need to act sooner rather than later while the world is heavily addicted to fossil fuels, that may never change completely, but every nation is trying to figure out how to become more energy independent. The more independent they become the less power BRICKS holds.
The more energy independent we are the less power the US has over us. The BRICS model is one of investment for mutual development and benefit. They don't want to be the next neo-liberal rogue Empire.
I hope you are right. Without a more enlightened mindset what has happened in the past is today’s freedom fighter becomes tomorrow’s dictator.
Investment is a tool of soft power, yes it looks different to the tools colonialism of the past but can welded against less powerful nations in a similar way. Sri Lanka’s run in with Chinas belt and road investment is one example that comes to mind.
Thanks for your top-class analysis Rachel, super-impressed! I was talking just this weekend to a money pundit at the XR rally in Windsor who told me that the BRICS nations are going to decouple from the dollar and what that might mean for the USA particularly as their national debt is some 34 trillion dollars! No way to pay that off if the world stops trading in dollars. If Kamala Harris gets in she will have to do some major heavy lifting to stop the US economy collapsing into its own footprint. If Trump gets in it will mean a stampede away from the dollar. Either way we are looking at a seismic shift in the balance of geopolitical power. Hang on to your seats everyone and make sure your community can feed itself. Safety in a resource crisis consists of well-fed neighbours.
Excellent comment, Dirk, thank you!
The chickens are finally coming home to roost. The more I learn about the abuse of power of the west headed first by Britain and enthusiastically taken up by the USA becoming the senior parter after WW2 the more I can sympathise with rest of world. It does not bode well for the West or for the world in general. We have provided ample ammunition for authoritarian leaders to gather a following to polish their credentials for a fight back that distracts nicely from the personal gains they will make. We may yet be looking to China to be the voice of reason in the BRICS grouping. They have some investment in the carbon reduction game and also may see some benefit in retaining trade with non-BRICS countries which would entail not crippling their economies. Perhaps I am grasping at straws.
As a Brazilian I really enjoy the recent BRICS rise in relevance worldwide. However, as someone who works and is concerned with environment, I share all your concerns regarding the lack of changes in the economic model and the craziness for continuous grow. “A esperança é um urubu pintado de verde”.
Rachel, your work is critical. Thank you for this expert research, intelligence and opinion. It is rare and you are even rarer. Thank you! Please keep up the work. Thank you again!
Thank you, Matthew!
You can be sure that the US won't cede power quietly.
Reminds me of the Schmachtenberger analysis of the main possible outcomes of the meta-crisis.
Collapse - Continuation of the current US dominated world order until biophysical/financial limits cause an inevitable crash.
Dystopia - The rise of authoritarian and autocratic governments, citizen monitoring and lack of personal freedoms. Probably still hitting the planets limits.
The need for a third attractor to steer away from these two outcomes. What is it though?
The end of the unipolar moment and the rise of mulitipolarity is not a dystopia of 'autocratic' governments - Russo and Sinophobia is event in the Western media but many BRICS countries are doing better at substantive democracies than the UK and US are.
China is leading on green development and in lifting millions out of poverty but what's really needed is a multi-lateral degrowth economic model.
I hope you're right, but I'm not so optimistic about China's green development (Uighur slavery) or human rights intentions of lifting people out of poverty. As Rachel rightly points out, if the multipolar world continues with the zero-sum dynamic of the unipolar one, we'll be stuck with the same cycle of resource wars and environmental destruction.
I don't think multipolarity will lead to resource wars which have almost exclusively involved the US illegally invading and stealing oil or punitively sanctioning in order to dominate and control the energy market. I think BRICS will reconfigure a UN type organisation (without the US right to veto) and will protect national sovereignty. They will peacefully trade (they do not want economy destroying war) in resources and energy share from their grids for mutual benefit. The personal relationship between Xi and Putin gives me hope that they can do this.
However, they will inherit the climate crisis that the West has mostly caused. It's going to be tough, but we're getting multipolarity whether we like it or not, so good luck to BRICS I say.
Right on cue. The Uighur slavery is pure unevidenced propaganda. See the in depth Grayzone article linked here https://jowaller.substack.com/p/sinophobia-in-the-british-msm-continues?utm_source=publication-search
I'd have to do some research into GrayZone before taking that on face value.
Ok just read my article then! There is only one source for the allegations of genocide of Uighurs- a right wing idealogue called Adrian Zenz. There is no evidence of slavery or forced sterilisation (apart from lines of 70 year olds queuing up for health checks!) and the Uyghur population growth in Xinjiang was 2.6 times higher than that of Han Chinese in the Xinjiang region.’
I'm sad to see this title terminology seemingly indicating something new. That said, I believe we may find that this rapist brings change not being contemplated by many, especially those watching commercial media. I've head Joel Salatin is considered for USDA and if that wouldn't kick capitalism in the ass a bit, I'm thinking another one that will would be RFK Jr running HHS. I see a potential for holding some corporate polluters accountable and perhaps a pull-back from some of the techno-fantasy and corporate controls that have largely bankrolled the status quo, while transferring funds from the working class to the privileged class and stymying real change to more sustainable practices for all.
I'm as surprised as anyone that I am feeling this way... may this be a reversion from when Reagan removed the solar panels from the White House back in the day?
I'm holding hope for some people (not profit) focused activity and potentially some end to the white-centric, GDP-focused, privileged class (and irrational really) narrative in the daily programming. I know it seems hard to believe but I do think 47 at least hears the people (upon whom he's counting for his self-affirmation?) and will tell the quiet truths out loud... at least once in a while. ;-)
Also, with BRICS, I'm a little bit wondering if Kamala was throwing the election... I mean, who wants to be in charge when the bottom falls out of the economy nationally? Why not put that loss on the epitome of corporate corruption? He's already taken accountability for blowing up Nordstream, so what's a little US Empire collapse on top of that?
The new multipolar world will not be one of 'autocratic' governments. That's propaganda from the US. https://jowaller.substack.com/p/sinophobia-in-the-british-msm-continues?utm_source=publication-search
Directionally, a lot of these are valid points, but I'm skeptical of anything happening in One Fell Swoop.
Will the US wage a war to try and stop it?
The BRICKS countries need to act sooner rather than later while the world is heavily addicted to fossil fuels, that may never change completely, but every nation is trying to figure out how to become more energy independent. The more independent they become the less power BRICKS holds.
The more energy independent we are the less power the US has over us. The BRICS model is one of investment for mutual development and benefit. They don't want to be the next neo-liberal rogue Empire.
I hope you are right. Without a more enlightened mindset what has happened in the past is today’s freedom fighter becomes tomorrow’s dictator.
Investment is a tool of soft power, yes it looks different to the tools colonialism of the past but can welded against less powerful nations in a similar way. Sri Lanka’s run in with Chinas belt and road investment is one example that comes to mind.
Could you link to some articles backing this up?