Listen now | What can snowflakes teach us about the economy, civilisation and crisis? Professor Tim Garrett, atmosphere scientist at the University of Utah, has modelled how the behaviour of snowflakes and clouds can be used to predict energy consumption and GDP, bridging the gap between economic theory and the natural world. He says we can learn where we are and where we're going using the laws of thermodynamics—and would be foolish to ignore them.
Water vapor changing phase to a snowflake is something like humans changing phase from alive to dead. Both become very cold, fall to the ground and eventually melt away. When the sun comes up the molecules swirl about to play another day.
I was disappointed in Tim's presentation. It seemed to be a conflation of Toynbee (rise and fall of civilizations) and the arrogance of physicists in thinking that economics can be modeled as if it were a physical system. Plus a whiff of all complex systems decay ... when the interesting thing is that complex systems *have* evolved. In the human case, social systems have become larger and more complex over the millennia. Yes, capitalism is based on continuous growth, which is impossible. But that's not the only system there is. He lived in another system! He lived in Tonga, in Ha'apai, where I lived for several years, doing anthropological fieldwork. I didn't have to live on canned mackerel :)
The use of the term "capitalism" muddies and confuses the issue. Capitalism includes property rights, contract law, and an opportunity for personal reward. The issue that is central to Garrett's thesis is the monetary system. We should focus on whether it is possible to switch from a debt backed fractional reserve system (which every country uses and requires growth) to an energy backed full reserve system (which might be sustainable).
Water vapor changing phase to a snowflake is something like humans changing phase from alive to dead. Both become very cold, fall to the ground and eventually melt away. When the sun comes up the molecules swirl about to play another day.
I was disappointed in Tim's presentation. It seemed to be a conflation of Toynbee (rise and fall of civilizations) and the arrogance of physicists in thinking that economics can be modeled as if it were a physical system. Plus a whiff of all complex systems decay ... when the interesting thing is that complex systems *have* evolved. In the human case, social systems have become larger and more complex over the millennia. Yes, capitalism is based on continuous growth, which is impossible. But that's not the only system there is. He lived in another system! He lived in Tonga, in Ha'apai, where I lived for several years, doing anthropological fieldwork. I didn't have to live on canned mackerel :)
The use of the term "capitalism" muddies and confuses the issue. Capitalism includes property rights, contract law, and an opportunity for personal reward. The issue that is central to Garrett's thesis is the monetary system. We should focus on whether it is possible to switch from a debt backed fractional reserve system (which every country uses and requires growth) to an energy backed full reserve system (which might be sustainable).