The blind spot about unintended consequences is a recurring theme when thinking about our interconnected systems and crises. Building a new train line to improve public transport can, as Jonathan points out, cause a shortage of resources elsewhere, or in the case of HS2, destroy over 100 irreplaceable old growth forests. Building a wind farm in Scotland can destroy habitats for endangered wildcats and many other species. We need to think about 1st, 2nd and nth order effects of our well intentioned actions, and to do that needs cross disciplinary dialogue.
The altruists and psychopaths quote was from George Monbiot I believe.
again another interesting chat. But I must add another option to the quest for minerals that Jonathan Mille summarised as being Trade, War, or Collapse. What about Substitute?
Have you ever played "The Substitution Game?” EG: “Can you make solar panels without tellurium?” or “Can you make EV’s without cobalt, manganese, copper, lithium…” Google it. Read. Rinse and repeat for all the minerals you heard are “essential” for wind and solar and EV’s and grid storage. After listening to various renewables sceptics claiming there was not enough cobalt, vanadium, etc…. and then spending a few weeks googling it - I found that we DO NOT NEED Critical Minerals or Rare Earths. Not for the bulk wind and solar and EV’s and grid storage. Yes - electronics need them. But that’s computer monitors and phones - not huge bulky things like grid batteries!
So - a quick tour of the technologies and brands that substitute the rare for the super-abundant!
SOLAR PANELS: 95% of solar panel brands are normal crystalline cells that already avoid ANY rare-earths or Critical Minerals by using silicon - which is 27% of the Earth’s crust, and aluminium 8% and some silver or copper to send the electricity out.
WIND TURBINES - are made from iron - 5% of the earth’s crust, aluminium, and fibreglass blades - that’s polyester resin and glass fibres. We can even recycle these blades now.
This next one has radically reinvented their turbine. Instead of requiring the usual quarterly service, 4 times annually for 25 to 30 years - these parts NEVER need servicing! http://newsreleases.sandia.gov/turbine_innovation/
But China's BYD “Seagull” only costs $9000 USD - but can do 400 km per charge! I would buy one in a second and charge it for free from the solar on our roof.
ALTERNATIVES FOR GRID STORAGE: SODIUM batteries are great for the first few hours, as it is 30% cheaper than lithium, operates in a much greater temperature range, and is thermally stable (doesn’t suddenly burst into flames). For longer storage use OFF-river pumped hydro. Worldwide there are over 100 TIMES more potential sites than we need. Pick your best 1% and you’re done! https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/pumped_hydro_atlas/
RECYCLING all these is getting more efficient. Unlike burning fossil fuels, once mined, all these minerals go into the industrial ecosystem to be recycled forever. "Black mass" from ground-up EV batteries is no longer a waste product to dispose of, but a sought after resource.
This means our great-great-grandchildren might be scavenging the ghost Ecocities of 3 billion people! That's like having the concrete and wood and iron and steel and glass of over 1000 Chicago's or Brisbane's to scavenge and salvage and recycle! So - NOT infinite growth - but probably a big bubble mid century. That we must then carefully deflate. That bubble for us is a bottleneck for the biosphere - and our descendants need us to bring as much of the biosphere through that bottleneck as we can!
Data scientist Hannah Ritchie of “Our world in data” and her own research says we have enough minerals - but there might be temporary shortages as we need to open more mines
The psychological aspects of transition can be important to understand better and (then) better. One important point to emphasize is the easily generalizable fact that most of our human behaviors (that are effectively in support of the misguided, environmentally imbalanced & unsustainable Economy we all know and are depressed with so well) do not have immediate, tangible negative consequences to the actor, and so there's not much motivation to NOT engage in doing those behaviors, however small (like buying a non-eco food item) or big (like deciding to clear cut an old growth forest) (sigh) - such a wicked problem (from that commonly shared mindstate at least)
um, but we probably wouldn't be so altruistic if it wasn't for such 'psychopathic' support (@ 49:30)
Psychological transition, indeed; a huge battleship to turn around in a very short time.
The motivational drivers behind the acquisition/accumulation model of personal and social psychology, and its coupling with the success = growth economic model (whether competetive-capitalist or otherwise), have long been recognized. Climate change is perhaps making all that more obvious to more people.
But the drivers of alternative psychologies that value restraint, cooperation and the like, though iterated in western societies from the earliest times (e.g., in notions like the simple life, small is beautiful, do unto others, etc.) have never had the traction of the acquisitive models, except, maybe, in dire situations have made it clear that the survival of any depends on equitable sharing among all of resources, risks and responsibilities. As the speakers note, our main task as climate activists may well be to make people in general and mid- and upper-level political, corporate and religio-ideological leaders realize that we are now in such a dire situation globally.
One point that needs to be emphasized (as it has been by many Planet: Critical speakers) is that our current situation is one of over-extension, like any species population explosion. What we have been doing, where we are now, is not sustainable. We need not only to curtail the many manifestations of continual growth, but to cut back, to go into degrowth mode.
This sounds fascinating but I can't take very much in from video. Is there any chance you could provide transcripts for your video context? That would be amazing.
The blind spot about unintended consequences is a recurring theme when thinking about our interconnected systems and crises. Building a new train line to improve public transport can, as Jonathan points out, cause a shortage of resources elsewhere, or in the case of HS2, destroy over 100 irreplaceable old growth forests. Building a wind farm in Scotland can destroy habitats for endangered wildcats and many other species. We need to think about 1st, 2nd and nth order effects of our well intentioned actions, and to do that needs cross disciplinary dialogue.
The altruists and psychopaths quote was from George Monbiot I believe.
Hi guys,
again another interesting chat. But I must add another option to the quest for minerals that Jonathan Mille summarised as being Trade, War, or Collapse. What about Substitute?
Have you ever played "The Substitution Game?” EG: “Can you make solar panels without tellurium?” or “Can you make EV’s without cobalt, manganese, copper, lithium…” Google it. Read. Rinse and repeat for all the minerals you heard are “essential” for wind and solar and EV’s and grid storage. After listening to various renewables sceptics claiming there was not enough cobalt, vanadium, etc…. and then spending a few weeks googling it - I found that we DO NOT NEED Critical Minerals or Rare Earths. Not for the bulk wind and solar and EV’s and grid storage. Yes - electronics need them. But that’s computer monitors and phones - not huge bulky things like grid batteries!
So - a quick tour of the technologies and brands that substitute the rare for the super-abundant!
SOLAR PANELS: 95% of solar panel brands are normal crystalline cells that already avoid ANY rare-earths or Critical Minerals by using silicon - which is 27% of the Earth’s crust, and aluminium 8% and some silver or copper to send the electricity out.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/critical-minerals-solar-batteries/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crystalline_silicon
THIN FILM is the only sector with rare earth issues. But they’re only 5% of the solar panel market for special niches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_panel#Technology
WIND TURBINES - are made from iron - 5% of the earth’s crust, aluminium, and fibreglass blades - that’s polyester resin and glass fibres. We can even recycle these blades now.
Wind generators WITHOUT rare-earth magnets are now a thing:- http://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/07/28/15-mw-rare-earth-free-offshore-wind-turbine-seeks-path-to-market/
Niron Magnetics: https://www.nironmagnetics.com/
This next one has radically reinvented their turbine. Instead of requiring the usual quarterly service, 4 times annually for 25 to 30 years - these parts NEVER need servicing! http://newsreleases.sandia.gov/turbine_innovation/
LITHIUM RESERVES: We have 22 million tons of lithium reserves. If we save it for EV’s (and use other grid storage - see below), at 8kg per EV it’s enough for 2.75 BILLION EV’s, twice what we need. https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42417327/lithium-supply-batteries-electric-vehicles/
ALSO - MOST CITY DRIVING does not need higher-range lithium - but could be cheaper lower range sodium (sea salt). The average Australian passenger car drives only 11,100 km per year - or 30.5 km a day. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/survey-motor-vehicle-use-australia/latest-release
But China's BYD “Seagull” only costs $9000 USD - but can do 400 km per charge! I would buy one in a second and charge it for free from the solar on our roof.
https://eightify.app/summary/electric-vehicles/world-s-first-sodium-battery-car-byd-seagull-under-9000
ALTERNATIVES FOR GRID STORAGE: SODIUM batteries are great for the first few hours, as it is 30% cheaper than lithium, operates in a much greater temperature range, and is thermally stable (doesn’t suddenly burst into flames). For longer storage use OFF-river pumped hydro. Worldwide there are over 100 TIMES more potential sites than we need. Pick your best 1% and you’re done! https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/pumped_hydro_atlas/
ELECTRIC MOTORS: Valeo have a rare-earth free electric motor. https://www.valeo.com/en/catalogue/pts/high-voltage-rare-earth-free-electric-motor/
TESLA are working on one - prototype due mid 2024? https://www.carwow.co.uk/tesla/news/5220/new-tesla-ev-compact-electric-car-hatchback-price-specs-release-date
It’s a trend across the industry with Tesla, BMW, General Motors, Borgwarner, Jaguar & Land Rover, Tata, ZF, Vitesco, Renault, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Bentley, Marelli and Eurogroup Laminations all working on it. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automakers-suppliers-pushing-cut-rare-earths-evs-2023-11-14/
RECYCLING all these is getting more efficient. Unlike burning fossil fuels, once mined, all these minerals go into the industrial ecosystem to be recycled forever. "Black mass" from ground-up EV batteries is no longer a waste product to dispose of, but a sought after resource.
COPPER: Replace with aluminium. Aluminium is less conductive so you have to have 25% thicker wires - but that doesn’t matter as it is half the price and weight. HVDC lines are already aluminium. It can replace 90% of the functions of copper. https://www.shapesbyhydro.com/en/material-properties/how-we-can-substitute-aluminium-for-copper-in-the-green-transition/
LASTLY - I'm not about 'infinite growth'. Just enough growth in energy and food tech to push us through into a Solar-Punk future for all 10 billion of us by 2050. "Club of Rome" sister organisation "Earth4All" says that if we get the welfare policy right, by 2100 the population might be 6 billion. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/world-population-bomb-may-never-go-off-as-feared-finds-study
This means our great-great-grandchildren might be scavenging the ghost Ecocities of 3 billion people! That's like having the concrete and wood and iron and steel and glass of over 1000 Chicago's or Brisbane's to scavenge and salvage and recycle! So - NOT infinite growth - but probably a big bubble mid century. That we must then carefully deflate. That bubble for us is a bottleneck for the biosphere - and our descendants need us to bring as much of the biosphere through that bottleneck as we can!
OTHER REFERENCES:-
Wang et al Jan 2023 says we have enough minerals
https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(23)00001-6#%20
The IEA says we have enough but must encourage speed of mine approval
https://www.iea.org/topics/critical-minerals
Data scientist Hannah Ritchie of “Our world in data” and her own research says we have enough minerals - but there might be temporary shortages as we need to open more mines
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/minerals-for-electricity
LESS mining than fossil fuels - even when accounting for all the rock ore bodies moved to refine into the pure metals https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/energy-transition-materials
Excellent episode, thank you. I'm struggling to finish some system dynamics coursework, and this is a good reminder of why I need to push through.
Of possible interest re: Narrative
heroesnarrative.org
Thanks for interesting discussion
The psychological aspects of transition can be important to understand better and (then) better. One important point to emphasize is the easily generalizable fact that most of our human behaviors (that are effectively in support of the misguided, environmentally imbalanced & unsustainable Economy we all know and are depressed with so well) do not have immediate, tangible negative consequences to the actor, and so there's not much motivation to NOT engage in doing those behaviors, however small (like buying a non-eco food item) or big (like deciding to clear cut an old growth forest) (sigh) - such a wicked problem (from that commonly shared mindstate at least)
um, but we probably wouldn't be so altruistic if it wasn't for such 'psychopathic' support (@ 49:30)
Have you had Prof Steve Keen on the show Rachel?
Psychological transition, indeed; a huge battleship to turn around in a very short time.
The motivational drivers behind the acquisition/accumulation model of personal and social psychology, and its coupling with the success = growth economic model (whether competetive-capitalist or otherwise), have long been recognized. Climate change is perhaps making all that more obvious to more people.
But the drivers of alternative psychologies that value restraint, cooperation and the like, though iterated in western societies from the earliest times (e.g., in notions like the simple life, small is beautiful, do unto others, etc.) have never had the traction of the acquisitive models, except, maybe, in dire situations have made it clear that the survival of any depends on equitable sharing among all of resources, risks and responsibilities. As the speakers note, our main task as climate activists may well be to make people in general and mid- and upper-level political, corporate and religio-ideological leaders realize that we are now in such a dire situation globally.
One point that needs to be emphasized (as it has been by many Planet: Critical speakers) is that our current situation is one of over-extension, like any species population explosion. What we have been doing, where we are now, is not sustainable. We need not only to curtail the many manifestations of continual growth, but to cut back, to go into degrowth mode.
This sounds fascinating but I can't take very much in from video. Is there any chance you could provide transcripts for your video context? That would be amazing.